Bill Gates 1989 predictions

In 1989, Bill Gates gave a talk at the University of Waterloo. An audio transcript recently became available.

Money money money

The talk is interesting from a historical perspective. You get Bill Gates’ personal perspective on the history. Like “software is where we belong”, because once it works, it keeps working. The reasoning is really: can we split between the easy money (software, where once it’s done, it’s pretty much like printing money) that we keep to ourselves, and complicated business, like making the chips or the computers themselves, where Microsoft will just “influence” other companies…

… and Bill Gates invented the Internet

If you listen to him, they really designed what is now known as the “IBM PC”, and IBM’s contribution to the whole thing is barely evoked. In this talk, he also says “I decided to reserve the top 384K, put video memory here, I/O there, and so on”… I wonder if this is really true, it might very well be. He definitely had the technical ability to do that. What I wonder is if IBM would just have taken Bill Gates’ blueprintes as is, or whether this was really a dialogue. It’s hard to tell, but there are things in this discourse that can be discounted based on what we know today, like “this MS/DOS software we had invented“.

32-bit will last us more than 10 years

Looking towards the future into what is now our past, Bill Gates makes a few questionable predictions, like “a 32-bit address space is going to last us more than 10 years. In reality, the first 64-bit CPUs from MIPS appeared in 1991, less than 2 years later. But then today, in 2007, we are only starting to see the 4GB limit as a limit for personal computers, and the transition to 64-bit is well underway. This time, it was prepared ahead of time.

Small teams are good

There are some remarkable insights as well. For example, at one point, Gates explains that the individual pieces of software are not valuable to Microsoft, because in a few years, “who cares”, there will be better software. So he sees the key asset of Microsoft as being the ability to keep small teams focused and efficient, so that they remain nimble and ahead of the competition. That is so very smart. I would bet that practically nobody understood that so clearly in 1989, and even today, big companies (including Microsoft itself, ironically), often forget this key characteristic of our industry.

To use an example close to home, the core functionality of HP Integrity VM was developed by only three people, myself included, over the span of 3 years. Better yet, it was a quite pleasant experience, and each of us commented that this was the best team he ever had worked in. As a matter of fact, all the successful projects I participated in started as “small things”, something that a single person can do by himself. At one point later in the project, the thing grows big enough that you can parallelize the work, and then it makes sense to build a larger team (and boy, did we ask, when this happened!). But even at that point, it still works much better if the larger team is made of “loosely connected subteams”. I see it as a key strength of open-source software: individual contributors are not forced on a schedule that does not match their own needs, they jump on the bandwagon of whatever release train suits them best. In my opinion, this makes a world of difference.

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