Futurism

IEEE Spectrum pokes fun at Ray Kurzweil’s predictions about the future:

Therein lie the frustrations of Kurzweil’s brand of tech punditry. On close examination, his clearest and most successful predictions often lack originality or profundity. And most of his predictions come with so many loopholes that they border on the unfalsifiable. Yet he continues to be taken seriously enough as an oracle of technology

Ray Kurzweil is, among other things, a founder of the Singularity University (link currently down, maybe they can’t take the load).

Well, my reader may remember that I already wrote about the Singularity. And my conclusion was this: the Singularity as commonly defined has already happened. And in any case, chances are that any real singularity is something you can only observe from the outside, but that you will barely notice, if at all, while you are in the middle of it.

Alan Kay is famous among other things for his quote: “The best way to predict the future is to invent it“. I talked to Alan Kay on several occasions while we were both at HP, and after these discussions, I was rather tempted to rewrite his great word of wisdom as follows: “The best way to secure one’s future is to rewrite history.” Ironically, IEEE Spectrum seems to have reached the same conclusion about Ray Kurzweil.

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